U.S. Intelligence Knew Of Wagner Plot Days In Advance, Briefed Congress

US intelligence officers were well aware that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, intended to lead an armed uprising against the senior Russian military leaders.

Days before Saturday’s events, congressional leaders were even told after US intelligence apparently saw the mercenary company assembling troops and stockpiling weapons in preparation for potentially attacking the military ministry.

Describing the Congressional briefings, The New York Times reported late Saturday that “U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.”

“The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine.”

The US government chose to remain mute in front of the major Wagner events, in contrast to the earlier invasion threats of February 2022, perhaps in the hopes that this would destabilize the Russian state and have a detrimental influence on military activities in Ukraine. There isn’t much proof to yet that Wagner’s brief mutiny resulted in major Ukrainian successes on the front lines.

The Times explains the rationale of its intel sources as follows: 

U.S. officials felt that if they said anything, Mr. Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly had little interest in helping Mr. Putin avoid a major, embarrassing fracturing of his support.

While it is not clear exactly when the United States first learned of the plot, intelligence officials conducted briefings on Wednesday with administration and defense officials. On Thursday, as additional confirmation of the plot came in, intelligence officials informed a narrow group of congressional leaders, according to officials familiar with the briefings who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

While Prigozhin has made clear over the last few months how much he despises both senior general Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu personally, the intelligence that Washington is said to have obtained looks quite detailed and seems to have perfectly foreseen events, only a few days before they took place.

While the Kremlin has so far refrained from blaming NATO or the US for the unrest, it has implied and warned that the West may try to take advantage of the crisis.

“The attempted armed mutiny in our country has aroused strong disapproval in Russian society, which firmly supports President Vladimir Putin,” a Foreign Ministry statement said Saturday. “We warn the Western countries against the slightest attempts to use the internal situation in Russia for achieving their Russophobic aims. Such attempts are futile and evoke no support either in Russia or among soberly-minded political forces abroad.”

But soon after, Secretary of State Blinken did just that, in Sunday news shows pushing the talking point that the Wagner mutiny exposed “real cracks” in Putin’s government:

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday said the short-lived rebellion from Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin “shows real cracks” within Russia as it wages its war on Ukraine. 

“Prigozhin himself, in this entire incident, has raised profound questions about the very premises for Russian aggression against Ukraine in the first place, saying that Ukraine or NATO did not pose a threat to Russia, which is part of Putin’s narrative. And it was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. So this raises profound questions. It shows real cracks,” Blinken said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Throughout the weekend, there was a continued increase in the military’s presence in Russia’s southern regions and key cities. Moscow’s famous Red Square has been blocked all day Sunday because of additional security measures that are still in place.

Sky News and others have meanwhile commented on Putin not being willing to forgive “betrayal”:

Dmitry Kiselyov, in his Russian state TV programme, has claimed the swift resolution of the Wagner Group’s mutiny shows Russia is a united nation. Part of his show has been tweeted by Francis Scarr from BBC Monitoring. Mr Kiselyov also played an archive clip of Vladimir Putin saying he is able to forgive many things, but not “betrayal”.

There is a lot of conjecture over Mr. Putin’s response to the mutiny. According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, it may take weeks or months to resolve.

On Saturday in Putin’s televised remarks to the nation which addressed the crisis as it was unfolding, the Russian president called the mutineers’ actions “a knife in the back of our people.”

As part of the Lukashenko-mediated cease-fire agreement, Prigozhin is currently moving into “exile” in the neighboring country of Belarus. Despite this, rumors continue to swirl about the complex situation, and numerous prevailing ideas have arisen.

What’s clear is that President Putin took the matter very seriously. “Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he keeps the situation of the special operation under control around the clock,” a statement in TASS said. The president “has been staying up quite late lately,” the statement said.